Companies are in no shape just to swallow that. So, look for reductions of the current 48-inch web width to 44 inches at papers published by Gannett, Media General and the New York Times Regional Group among others. Companies may shave the weight too, testing whether with readers, you can get too thin.
The coming price increases buck the usual supply and demand cycles. Newspapers are already printing many fewer pages of advertising this year, and redesigns, done or in progress, are taking out pages of stock tables and news.
But a variety of factors -- among them energy and transportation costs in the paper industry and the strength of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. -- will make the commodity more expensive even in a very soft market.
In presentations at the meeting, newspaper companies were steering away from any bold promises of brighter results ahead and only mildly challenging Wall Street's negative take on the industry.
Gannett CEO Craig Dubow did say he thought "current share price does not reflect our true value." Lee CEO Mary Junck said that her company will be able to grow revenues once the current stalled economy picks back up, aided by its mix of mid-sized papers in midwest and Western markets.
But many were less optimistic than that. Robert Decherd, CEO of newly minted A.H. Belo, said that online, niche ventures can mitigate print revenue losses but "cannot replace them because the pricing isn't equivalent." One of his strategies has been to form a new business unit with non-newspaper executives to develop less traditional brand extensions.
Online revenue growth rates have slowed at most companies. Paul Ginocchio, analyst for Deutsche Bank Securities, which sponsored the meeeting, wrote in a pre-conference report that it will be 2011-2012, best case, before online revenue growth equals print losses, perhaps longer than that.
As is often the case at these affairs, CEO Don Graham of The Washington Post had brighter overall results than most because of the growth of the Kaplan education business and profitablilty of the small CableONE company. Both were acquistions made decades ago, and, in essence, can carry the Post (with some cost reductions and a strong online presence) through the current bad times.
Graham put the matter plainly in the conclusion of the company's recent annual report: "As the company has grown, the Post's (newspaper) business results are no longer as significant as they once were. This is both bad and good: It's bad for shareholders that the newspaper no longer provides the profits it once did. It's good that the money the newspaper made went into education and cable investment, most of which have proven succssful."
Most of the companies, without that running head start, are looking now to develop a winning portfolio of digital investments that can support a core news effort in print and online, as the traditional revenue base deteriorates.
